Caustic soda: The off-season arrival of liquid caustic sore

With the arrival of the off-season, after a long period of high levels in liquid caustic soda, the downstream is exhausted, and some of the downstream alkali-alcoholic industries are declining. The recent domestic liquid caustic soda market has a bearish sentiment. In particular, the liquid caustic soda market in northwestern Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, due to the lower enthusiasm for the high-value liquid alkali liquor to be received, together with the inventory of liquid caustic soda from individual manufacturers, the high-end transaction center of gravity has declined. The local mainstream shipment price of 32% ion alkali dropped from 2650-2750 yuan/ton to 2600-2650 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the liquid caustic soda market in some eastern regions gradually began to take off. It is reported that chemical fiber and other downstream industries in some parts of eastern China are declining. Some manufacturers also have a moderately bearish attitude.

From an economic point of view, PMI data in June was at 50.2%, which was a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating that the downward pressure on domestic economy still exists. The National Bureau of Statistics released CPI and PPI data yesterday, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in CPI. However, the increase in PPI was -2.1%. Overall, the domestic economy is still not optimistic. Some market participants even have doubts about whether China will enter deflation. Under such circumstances, the market's appeal for stimulus policies has been skyrocketing. We believe that the central bank will continue to adopt certain stimulative measures to hedge against the economic weakness. However, in the short term, the economy will have a much better recovery. Big.

From the perspective of the supply and demand side of the current caustic soda industry, according to Zhuo Chuang, the domestic liquid caustic soda stocks in local areas are more in stock, and in the period from July to August, for the caustic soda downstream industries, it will usher in a wave of off-season. , Do not rule out the possibility that there will still be a decrease, for the relative reduction in the demand for caustic soda, in this case, the local liquid caustic soda market is likely to be oversupply situation. At present, the imbalance of alkaline chloride is still serious, and industries such as PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin in the downstream industries are still showing no positive effect. Therefore, the market downturn in the market is still difficult to change.

In summary, after entering the middle of July, the liquid caustic soda market in major domestic regions does not rule out the possibility of a moderate fall. However, given the bleak market, it is expected that the fall rate will remain relatively limited and the overall situation will remain high. run. At the same time, chlor-alkali manufacturers do not rule out the possibility of keeping the liquid caustic price high by moderately reducing the start-up load.